Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-15 1.424338 1.617892 1.824256 2.060228 2.322149 2.603513 2.928179
2024-12-22 1.160374 1.421657 1.718226 2.078192 2.501614 2.982119 3.566835
2024-12-29 1.006850 1.323212 1.703523 2.190638 2.793840 3.511865 4.426368
2025-01-05 0.817177 1.153839 1.582774 2.162380 2.917156 3.857964 5.109294
2025-01-12 0.680116 1.030862 1.503866 2.176779 3.095789 4.291583 5.946788
2025-01-19 0.560002 0.912014 1.414544 2.166681 3.242493 4.701083 6.797694
2025-01-26 0.486252 0.847854 1.392464 2.246793 3.521407 5.314723 7.980557
2025-02-02 0.419013 0.782446 1.359713 2.307882 3.781272 5.928765 9.223948
2025-02-09 0.355724 0.712206 1.309543 2.336415 3.996896 6.501084 10.461973
2025-02-16 0.304207 0.652617 1.267847 2.373075 4.229383 7.120431 11.824676
2025-02-23 0.249066 0.575202 1.183848 2.328459 4.327268 7.543597 12.928495
2025-03-02 0.197224 0.492622 1.076877 2.228892 4.322225 7.803548 13.800718
2025-03-09 0.165052 0.445180 1.031251 2.240171 4.520581 8.431109 15.347122
2025-03-16 0.135197 0.395299 0.972109 2.218023 4.658487 8.973486 16.805935
2025-03-23 0.118729 0.373052 0.966720 2.301366 5.001524 9.901360 18.992515
2025-03-30 0.095047 0.325489 0.896969 2.242921 5.069052 10.351478 20.398329
2025-04-06 0.078618 0.292362 0.853577 2.233781 5.232439 10.990185 22.188660
2025-04-13 0.064074 0.259672 0.804296 2.203716 5.349831 11.554145 23.889886
2025-04-20 0.056052 0.244648 0.796651 2.268168 5.671546 12.532274 26.420988
2025-04-27 0.048494 0.228464 0.782631 2.315490 5.962142 13.474362 28.952966
2025-05-04 0.041077 0.209832 0.757746 2.332157 6.187112 14.304871 31.331602
2025-05-11 0.035085 0.194141 0.737910 2.358715 6.437635 15.207282 33.911711
2025-05-18 0.028220 0.171468 0.691174 2.306134 6.497740 15.721105 35.762111